University of Illinois Extension

Illini Farm Report

 

Instructions for using this document;

 

clicking on any slug line will download an mp3 file of the complete story

clicking on any actuality will download an mp3 file of only that actuality

 

Weekend Weather and Weekend Illini Farm Report

Click to Download: 

ifrwx.mp3                  

mccwx.mp3    

                                  ifrwe.mp3

Illini Farm Report

Todd E. Gleason

1301 W. Gregory Dr., Rm 75 MC710

Urbana, Illinois 61801

217-333-9697 or ifr@illinois.edu

 

May 11, 2012

 

Dear Broadcaster:

 

The Illini Farm Report is for use in your agricultural radio programming slots. You are welcome to run each story "as is," or to lift actualities from it. For your editing convenience, the scripts used for each story are included in this document. If you have any problems with the audio, story ideas, or suggestions for improvements, please call me at 217-3339697.

 

1          USDA WASDE Report Average Yield Questioned

 

2          Looking for Evidence to Agree with USDA

 

3          Basis 60 Cents Stronger than Normal

 

4          ARC Analysis – What Happens on a Grain Farm

 

5          Five Herbicide Families and Counting 

 

 

The opinions expressed on the Illini Farm Report are not necessarily those of the program producer, the University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences or U of I Extension. Our programs feature a wide range of viewpoints in the interest of promoting awareness and discussion of issues that are important to the agricultural community.

 

CUT 1 USDA WASDE Report Average Yield Questioned

Darrel Good, Ag Economist – University of Illinois

 

The May 11th USDA guess at the size of this yearÕs corn crop is big. Very big according to most in the trade, and some are wondering why. Todd Gleason has more on the calculation from the University of Illinois.

 

USDA has for several years in its May reportÉ

2:31

 

USDA has for several years in its May report used a relatively small number of years to calculate trend yield. The USDA trend yield for corn normally includes all the years from 1990 forward. It adjusts that trend to include a good or bad start to the growing season. This year it added two bushels for the early planting of the corn crop. Still, this last report was different says University of Illinois Ag Economist Darrel Good.

 

01:15:01  Good :49  The change they made was they did not useÉ

Éif you include last year in the trend analysis.

 

Good, a number cruncher, thinks the 2011 crop year should have been used to calculate the national trend yield for corn in the United States.

 

02:16:23  Good :54  I argue it should have been left inÉ

Écan happen again in any year.

 

So, while it did not happen this way, Darrel Good thinks it would be logical to include 2011 in any analysis of trend yield in the United States.

 

 

 

CUT 2             Looking for Evidence to Agree with USDA

            Darrel Good, Ag Economist – University of Illinois

 

USDA is predicting the corn crop in the ground now will be a bin buster by the time harvest rolls around. Todd Gleason has more on the estimate and its impact on the commodity markets.

 

The United States Department of AgricultureÉ

1:54

 

The United States Department of Agriculture last week projected there would be fifteen point seven billion bushels of corn available during the 2011/12 marketing year. ThatÕs all bushels – including the 851 million it expects to be leftover from last fallÕs harvest. Speaking of leftover, the agency thinks one-point-eight-eight billion bushels will be leftover next season. ItÕs a big number says University of Illinois Ag Economist Darrel Good.

 

Good :16  It is a higher projection than I would be using at this pointÉ

Éon the yield forecast at this point.

 

USDA is using a national average corn yield of 166 bushels to the acre.

 

Good :33  So, it does say that all these nuances asideÉ

Éaveraged just under $4 a bushel.

 

It is a price Darrel Good thinks farmers must truly consider for the year ahead.

 

Good :17  USDA certainly hinted at that in this reportÉ

Éthan weÕve been used to the past year.

 

The next set of really important USDA reports for the corn market will come in June when the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports are released.

 

 

CUT 3             Basis 60 Cents Stronger than Normal

            Darrel Good, Ag Economist – University of Illinois

 

The cash basis for corn throughout the Midwest has been abnormally tight since last harvest. Central Illinois bids the second week of May were thirty-five cents over the Chicago futures price. Todd Gleason has more from the University of Illinois on what it means.

 

The cash price of corn, most commodities for thatÉ

1:42

 

The cash price of corn, most commodities for that matter, is usually below its corresponding futures price on a commodities exchange at least in the places where it is widely grown. ThatÕs not been the case for corn grown in central Illinois since last fall. University of Illinois Ag Economist Darrel Good has some thoughts on the reason behind the strong basis.

 

Good 1:10  Well, we really are and this is mysteryÉ

Éa big discrepancy right now.

 

That discrepancy will resolve itself one way or the other once the corn crop planted this spring begins to be harvested in August.

 

 

CUT 4 ARC Analysis – What Happens on a Grain Farm

            Gary Schnitkey, Farm Management Specialist – University of Illinois

 

The SenateÕs version of the 2012 farm bill includes a new program. Todd Gleason files this report on how ARC (ark) might play out on a grain farm.

 

Farm Management Specialist at the UniversityÉ

3:03

 

Farm Management Specialist at the University of Illinois Gary Schnitkey has been following the farm bill debate in Washington with interest. The SenateÕs version of the bill includes a new risk management program called ARC (ark) or Agricultural Risk Coverage program. It would replace Direct, Counter-cyclical, and SURE payments. ARC is a revenue based safety net for farmers says Schnitkey.

 

Schnitkey :21  ARC is a revenue based program were farmers make a choiceÉ

Éunder different price scenarios for corn.

 

The ILLLINOIS team used average cash prices of $4.50 – thatÕs what some suggest is the new mid-point for corn, a $4 price, $3.75 – which is a mid 90Õs equivalent, and a low ball of $3.55 a bushel for corn.

 

Schnitkey :46  Four-fifty, a price of four-fiftyÉ

Éwould last several years in a row.

 

The Agricultural Risk Coverage program is specifically designed to pay out less over time when an extended period of low prices occurs. It is, also, expected to be used as a complimentary program to crop insurance. ARC pays out when revenue dips below 89 percent but maxes out once revenues drop below 79 percent.

 

Schnitkey :21 The thought is if you go down further than thatÉ

Éto much overlap with crop insurance.

 

If ARC were to be enacted farmers then would be expected to use crop insurance to protect against losses in the current year, and make a decision to or not to sign up for ARC to protect against multi-year losses.

 

ItÕs kind of like ACRE – the pilot program which will end with the current crop year, but rather than a state-wide trigger it has triggers based on either county yields or farm level yields.

 

 

 

CUT 5 Five Herbicide Families and Counting           

Aaron Hager, Extension Weed Scientist – University of Illinois

 

Farmers are finding it very difficult to control waterhemp in Illinois and other Midwestern states. Todd Gleason reports the weed has developed resistance to several chemical families once used to control it.

 

The researchers at ILLINOIS have identifiedÉ

2:38

 

The researchers at ILLINOIS have identified five different herbicide families that may no longer control a weed called waterhemp. When the plant is resistant to just one herbicide family it is problem, but once the resistance begins to stack up – for instance with two or three different types of resistance in a single field – it becomes a management problem. ItÕs even worse when the resistance is stacked together in an individual plant. (RADIO ONLYÉsays University of Illinois Extension Weed Scientist Aaron Hager).

 

Hager :18  Now you might be able to tank mixÉ

Éto actually control that.

 

Frankly speaking Hager believes some farmers may need to rely on the row crop cultivator, or maybe even a soybean walking crew to control waterhemp in the future. It is an amazingly adaptable plant. WhatÕs happening in Nebraska now right is a good example.

 

Hager :34  And the weed scientist there have actually identifiedÉ

Éresistance will evolve to it.

 

So the days of the farm relying on just one herbicide, glyphosate for instance, are rapidly moving into history because of evolution. The ILLINOIS stance is that farmers must rotate the family of herbicides used on a field.

 

Hager :35  We talk about rotating crops, but we are also going to haveÉ

Éduring that planting operation.

 

As for that stale seedbed, well it may be easier said than done.